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Insights, technical note, 4 min read, 2026-10-16

Three inputs decide most dispersion results

In our experience, the meteorological record, the source parameters and the treatment of buildings and terrain account for most of the spread between two credible models of the same stack.

Title
Three inputs decide most dispersion results
Doc no.
TN-602
Rev
P1
Discipline
AQ
Date
2026-10-16
Status
Published
What this means for you

If an air quality study shows no problems, check which weather years and stack data it used. Equally valid inputs can move the worst-affected point by several kilometres.

Atmospheric alone changes the picture. With the screening equations behind our home-page model, an 18 g/s source at 70 m effective height and wind at 4 m/s, neutral class D puts the peak ground-level concentration about 1.3 km downwind at roughly 98 µg/m³. Stable class F lowers the peak to about 28 µg/m³ and moves it more than 7 km away. Receptors that look clear under one assumption sit near the maximum under another.

The meteorological record

US regulatory practice sets the bar explicitly. Appendix W to 40 CFR Part 51 requires five years of representative National Weather Service data, at least one year of site-specific data, or at least three years of prognostic data, and prefers site-specific data where one to five years exist.1 Site-specific records must be at least 90 percent complete in each quarter, with substitution limited to 10 percent of hours, or 876 in a year.2

Many jurisdictions in the Gulf and India do not codify this. Citing the US requirement where local rules are silent gives the adviser a reference point and shows the choice was deliberate.

Source parameters

Stack height, internal diameter, exit velocity and exit temperature set plume rise, and plume rise sets where the plume reaches the ground. List each with its origin: vendor data sheet, design basis or measurement.

Buildings and terrain

Building downwash can bring a plume to the ground within a few hundred metres of a short stack. Elevated terrain can put s in contact with a plume that a flat-terrain run never brings down. State which building dimensions and which terrain dataset the model used.

Note

A chapter should name its , show why they are representative, and tabulate stack parameters with their sources. That is one page, and it is what an adviser checks first.

Notes and references

  1. US EPA. Guideline on Air Quality Models, 40 CFR Part 51, Appendix W, paragraph 8.4.2(e), current eCFR text (last revised 29 November 2024). https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-40/chapter-I/subchapter-C/part-51/appendix-Appendix%20W%20to%20Part%2051 Back to text
  2. US EPA (2000). Meteorological Monitoring Guidance for Regulatory Modeling Applications, EPA-454/R-99-005, section 5.3.2. https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2020-10/documents/mmgrma_0.pdf Back to text

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